by Tommy Gimler
It’s never a good sign when the ace of your pitching staff gets a concussion driving to the first day of spring training. If Tommy Hanson needs a nickname, we have one for him: Mr. Glass.
Usually 89 wins is a sign of a good season, but not if you had 81 on September 1st. The 2011 Atlanta Braves lost their last five games, their last four series, and an 8.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card to complete one of the worst September collapses in baseball history.
A quick glance at their 2011 statistics would lead one to believe that the collapse was the result of a lack of offensive firepower. The Braves finished 22nd in runs scored, 22nd in OPS, 22nd in RBI, and 26th in batting average.
But injuries and the Braves’ usually top notch pitching staff were the real culprits in September. Jair Jurrjens and Hanson missed all of September with knee and arm issues. Setup man Jonny Venters gave up more runs in September than he did in the first 2.5 months of the season, and closer Craig Kimbrel blew three of his last six save opportunities after finishing all but five up to that point.
The lack of offensive production is somewhat baffling when you look at Atlanta’s lineup on paper. Michael Bourn finished last year with 61 stolen bases. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann each had over 20 HR. Dan Uggla finally got it together after a brutal start and finished the season with 36 HR.
Jason Heyward had one of the more disappointing seasons of any player in baseball last year. After hitting .277 with 18 HR, 83 runs, 72 RBI, and 11 SB in his rookie campaign, big things were expected from Heyward. He responded with a 2011 campaign of .227/14/50/42/9.
And then there’s this fact: Chipper Jones is old and fat. He is no more than a decent number seven guy in the batting order. If the Braves continue to hit him third, fourth, or fifth, expect similar offensive numbers in 2012.
Pitching has always been the strong suit of the Atlanta Braves, and for most of 2011, it was no different. The pitching staff finished 2011 ranked 1st in strikeouts, 3rd in OPS against, 4th in ERA, and 4th in batting average against. But Hanson and Jurrjens are both coming back from injury, Tim Hudson will miss at least a month recovering from back surgery, and the back end of their rotation is unproven. Mike Minor is currently slated as the number three guy with Hudson out, and his career ERA is 4.74.
The DUD Says: There are too many question marks to be high on the Braves this year. If everyone stays healthy offensively, they will be a force. If Hanson and Jurrjens both pitch over 200 innings, and Hudson is effective upon returning to action, the Braves can win 90 games. If the Braves can find a way to be leading after seven innings, they will win games as Venters and Kimbrel proved to be one of the best closing combos last season. If I didn’t start every sentence with “if,” I’d have them winning more games.
2012 record: 81-81 (4th place, NL East)
Vegas Says: 85.5 wins (2nd place, NL East)
Donnie Warts Says: I’m sick and tired of talking about baseball teams I don’t give a fuck about. When do we get to talk about the Brewers? Anywho, back to Atlanta. 90 wins. First round elimination for them. Too bad, so sad.
